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I found one person who has no plans to buy iPad 1.0: James McQuivey, a VP at Forrester Research. He’s less than impressed with Apple’s latest offering and if he buys an iPad in the future it will be in 2011 or beyond (when the second generation comes out). While the “Kindle Killer” chant is growing louder among iPad reviewers, he still has lots of love for Amazon.

Expounding on his blog, he argues that Amazon’s business model is not jeopardized by the iPad because “Amazon is in this for the long term customer relationship. They actually don’t care if you want to buy their device they just care that you want to buy content from them in perpetuity.” Beyond Amazon, he sees Sony and Google as the iPad’s top competitors.



In regard to legitimate competitors, he says: “The easy names that come to mind are Dell, HP, Lenovo, and I have to say they’re going to make a bunch of nice tablets but they’ll really all be notebooks or netbooks without keyboards…The people in the best position to make a media centric device, which is what the iPad really is, are going to be Sony. Remember they make Vaios as well as TVs as well as the number two e-reader in the business…And all they have to do is put all those assets together into a single asset and build on some of the assets they have on the gaming side, and on the music side, video side….Now historically they’ve struggled to bring them all together but that doesn’t mean they can’t get it right this time. And the reader business has shown how they can get it right when they really put their mind to it. Beyond them though, Google is a name that you got to keep bandying about here, they have a couple of different operating systems that could be relevant. Not only the Android phone-based OS, but they have the Chrome OS.”

I’m less bullish on Amazon, I think the lion’s share of those considering a Kindle purchase, will defect to Apple’s camp— unless Kindle drops the price significantly (McQuivey expects some price drop). But even if Kindle drops the price to say $100 from the $259 baseline, I think many will look at the purchase decision as microwave vs. kitchen. Why spend $100 for the microwave, if you could get a whole kitchen for $499— the economics favor the kitchen (that is if you plan to use all the appliances, like e-mail, internet, multimedia and the app store). I’m a proud Kindle user who loves the e-ink technology but I would give it all up to have a more versatile device.

McQuivey says the next Kindle will include many new features and leverage more of Amazon’s offerings (also evidenced by Amazon’s recent acquistion of Touchco and its introduction of a Kindle development kit), but I doubt Amazon will ever create an app store that could rival iPad’s.

[image: flickr/d2digital]



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Editor’s note: Should everything be a game? In this guest post, Gabe Zichermann argues that fun is good and that game mechanics will find their way into all sorts of products and businesses. Zichermann is the CEO of professional mobile social networking startup beamME and the co-author of the upcoming books “Game-Based Marketing” and “Funware in Action.”

What if everything we did was a little more fun?

Ever since Foursquare burst onto the scene with its clever badges and simplified “mayoral” achievements, people have been going gaga for game mechanics (and Gaga videos, circumstantially). Its competitors and allies, from Gowalla and Yelp to Miso, Hot Potato and my own startup, beamME, have been evangelizing the value of points, badges, levels, challenges, leaderboards and achievements as an easy and powerful way to get consumers to engage with a product or service.

This use of game mechanics outside of games—also known as Funware—is taking the social web and mobile apps world by storm. Almost every aspiring startup—and many established brands, including Chase, NBC and the US Army—are turning to Funware to deliver results that traditional/social marketing simply cannot deliver. As I explain in my new book, Game-Based Marketing, game mechanics can make any service or community more fun; and when given a choice between two similar activities, consumers will always choose the one that’s more enjoyable.

Wouldn’t you?

Within the next 10 years, almost every consumer interaction will have game mechanics built into it. You’ll earn points for filing your taxes early, virtual badges for doing public service, and there will even be game shows on TV offering purely virtual rewards. Yes, I’m officially predicting “Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grade Farmville Player?” (Coming Fall 2015 on NBC)

But the use of game mechanics isn’t limited to things that already seem somewhat enjoyable.  I always get asked the same question about how to apply game mechanics to specific, challenging product categories—and even how to make great products better.

So in the spirit of fun, here’s my wishlist for the top three web/mobile apps I’d like to see “gameified”, and the three major game mechanics they should use: Leaderboards, Points and Status.

Facebook. Yes, it’s the world’s most popular social network, and perhaps the most trafficked website in the U.S., but it still could be a lot more fun.

Let’s take your “friend score”, for example. Most of us know exactly how many friends we have, and are keeping a running tally of our friends who have an outrageous number of connections and those who barely socialize on the site at all. (Facebook says the average user has about 200 friends). In effect, we are keeping a running leaderboard in our minds of how our social graph ranks by popularity. But why not make the leaderboard public? Consider that Orkut exists almost entirely because of this incidental feature (the country-by-country leaderboard is what made nationalistic Brazilians sign up by the millions to “beat” the US).

A socialized leaderboard would allow you to more easily gauge the popularity of your social graph and give you an incentive to make/add more connections to the service. Maybe the score could be weighted to reward adding friends ho are more active on the site, or who in turn have more connections than others.  A well-designed board would also let you see your relative and absolute ranking, along with a simple invitation to do just a little better (“add two more friends to beat Sam’s score”). It could even be designed to reward you for having more friends you actually interact with by scoring your behavior.

Generating that kind of behavior would be a huge win-win. Having more friends generally equates to greater personal satisfaction with Facebook and in real life, while Facebook has frequently called the number of connections the most important driver of user growth and engagement. All this is possible through the simple power of the leaderboard and would further cement Facebook’s intrinsic potential for fun.

Fedex. With the rise of e-commerce and simplified logistics, merchants and consumers are ever more acquainted with how to ship packages across the country and the world. After all, simplifying shipping (with things like the Free Super Saver at Amazon) has been credited as one of the most important drivers of e-commerce growth. But why can’t the experience of shipping (or receiving packages) be made more fun and social?

What if Fedex allowed you to connect your social graph to your shipments, letting you see your en route packages on a game board relative to your friends? You would receive points and rankings for various shipping stats, such as total time in transit, miles traveled per day, and so on. You could “talk smack” to friends whose packages were sent via ground (or the USPS), and even choose to use points to speed up shipments already underway. You could even design it to reward “green” choices as a second level of interaction. In short, the game would have a built-in incentive to get users to choose faster shipment methods and to publicize their choice of carrier.

If they wanted to kick it up a notch, they could even incorporate tracking stream data from competitive carriers (look at how much slower UPS is!) and let consumers use the power of human intelligence to do warehouse-to-destination routing calculus, a super complex math problem that could be easily made into a fun game. Suddenly, shipping isn’t just a commodity – it’s enjoyable – and it’s entirely possible with points.

Amazon.com book reviews. Paul Carr recently wrote an impassioned essay about the failure of Amazon’s book reviews to adjust for consumer vigilantism. While the comments were interesting and the suggestions lucid, making Amazon’s (or Yelp’s, or TripAdvisor’s) product and service reviews more accurate and relevant can be better accomplished through the thoughtful application of Funware, rather than one-off rulemaking.

In fact, Amazon’s review scheme was one of the first highly successful reputation systems, using basic badge mechanics and “flagging” to encourage and reward thorough reviews. Despite its early lead however, the review system on the site has stagnated in the last few years, with irrelevant badges becoming the norm (“Top 500 Reviewer”) and no true connection to a social graph.

By taking a page from Farmville and other Facebook games, Amazon could reignite the fun of writing reviews on the site and go a long way toward eliminating the chaff that clogs up the works. The key is to associate the reviews with the social graph in a way that both friends and prospective buyers can see.

I’d start by creating a virtual bookshelf for every book purchased – whether on Kindle or in the real world – allowing people to connect that to Facebook and curate the contents. Now take a page out of Blippy and Farmville and post this every time a purchase is made:

Gabe just purchased Game-Based Marketing on Amazon.com, check out his bookshelf.

This will drive friends to visit Gabe’s virtual bookshelf giving Amazon a fun way to socialize book (or other product) buying, but also ensuring that the original buyers’ friends are reading their reviews (which rarely happens today). Then, issue visual, socialized badges for buying, reading, reviewing and evangelism behaviors so that users’ status is directly connected to the books they have on their virtual shelves and what they say about them.

Since we also know that badges are highly effective at creating positive status loops and desirable behaviors, Amazon could easily issue badges for a wide range of reading activities. Whether its Science Fiction book discovery or reading 20% of the available bestsellers on Barack Obama, given the scope of literature, there are a virtually unlimited number of badges that could be earned!

Now, allow random buyers to browse Gabe’s virtual bookshelf (or virtual living-room, kitchen, garden) directly from the product’s page on Amazon. This will facilitate better reviewer/buyer understanding (my biggest personal complaint about reviews is that I can’t judge the reviewers taste against my own) and keep reviewers more honest because their real social graph is connected to the books they choose to keep/curate.

In short, Amazon could make book discovery, purchase and review a lot more fun by using socially publicized selections and badges to their advantage.

Whether it’s Facebook, Fedex, Amazon or your own startup, Funware and game mechanics can have a profound impact on how customers interact with each other and with your products. Incorporating points, badges, levels, challenges, leaderboards and achievements is a straightforward way to drive consumer engagement, even when the underlying activity isn’t intrinsically enjoyable. It’s a lesson we’ve learned time and time again—if a game mechanic is good enough, users won’t care if the theme is banal (Farmville) or the activity repetitive (Foursquare); all they care about are the virtual rewards for a virtual job well done.

In our fun future, we’ll earn these virtual, social rewards for everything we do—from shipping packages to taking out our trash, from getting good grades to buying books. If the rapid success of early Funware apps are any indication, perhaps a more playful world is closer than we think.



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Earlier this year we simplified the process for monetizing your blog by adding a “Monetize” tab in the Blogger app. We started with AdSense, which allows you to add contextual advertising to your pages; more recently we added AdSense for Feeds to help you generate revenue from the distribution of your blog via RSS and Atom. Today we launched a third option: direct integration with Amazon Associates to search Amazon’s product catalog and add links to products that earn you commissions when your readers buy products you recommend.

With this feature, you can search Amazon directly from the Blogger editor and add pictures and links to Amazon products right into your posts. Your readers will earn you commissions whenever they buy the products you recommend, and if you don’t already have an Amazon Associates account, you can sign up for one for free without leaving Blogger.

If you’ve ever written a blog post about a book, recommended a gadget, or reviewed a toy you bought for your kids, you’ve likely gone through the process of drafting the post, opening up a separate window to go to find a site that sells the product, then going back to Blogger to paste the link to the product into the post editor.

Starting today, you can search the Amazon product catalog without leaving the Blogger interface and insert links to the products you find into your posts. Not only is the process of linking to products more efficient, but Amazon makes it easy for you to earn money whenever your readers actually buy the products you write about. This is known as an “affiliate program”, and it’s designed to let you recommend products you like to your audience — if they buy the product, you’ll earn a commission on that purchase. (For more on affiliate programs in general, here is a good overview at ProBlogger from this summer, and Darren’s “11 Lessons Learned” post about Amazon Associates is a good review of how to get the most out of the program.)

To get started, click on the Monetize tab for your blog and click “Amazon Associates”. Walk through the setup wizard, and add the Product Finder once you’re done.

Now for the fun part: when you are writing a post on Blogger, you’ll see an Amazon gadget to the right of your post editor (the “Product Finder”). You can search the Amazon product catalog from within Blogger — type in the name of the product you are writing about, and insert a link to the product, an image of the product, or an iframe containing the image, price details and a “buy it now” button. Every link that’s created contains your unique Associates ID, ensuring that Amazon will credit you for any purchases that result from readers clicking the link on your blog.

If you’re an existing Amazon Associate, completing this setup simply makes the Product Finder available on Blogger for you — you continue to earn the same referral rate from Amazon. New Associates receive the same referral rate from Amazon that they would have received if they signed up directly. If you’re not interested in earning a referral, you can still install the Product Finder: from the “Amazon Associates” page under the Monetize tab, click “I’ll do this later — show me more Amazon options” and then click “Add the Product Finder” button.

A quick note about trust: affiliate programs work well when readers trust you. You should avoid promoting products simply because of the referral fee you might earn — readers may lose some of that trust if they sense your posts exist solely to make you money. You may also want to disclose to your readers that you will earn a commission on their purchase — some readers even prefer knowing that you benefit from their business.

There’s more information about this integration at Amazon.com, and the Amazon Associates blog has some more details. This integration is the result of months of collaboration between the engineers at both companies, and we’re very excited to share the results of this collaboration with you. Happy blogging!

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